Writing that headline just about made me physically ill. But I have been reading the tea leaves and, unfortunately, all the signs point to his coronation at the 2016 Republican Convention and victory over the Democratic candidate. Hopefully in 2016 I will look back at this post and laugh at how wrong I am, but for now let me explain why I say this.
The first thing you have to understand is that the Republican Party has a long trend of nominating the "heir-apparent," meaning whoever appears likely to win based on previous primary results. To show you what I mean I put together the below chart, showing the GOP Presidential nominee and "runner-up" (usually the second place finisher in the primaries) since 1952.
___________Winner________________Runner-Up________________
1952 | Dwight Eisenhower - None (drafted by the GOP)
1960 | Richard Nixon ------- None (Swept the field as Ike's VP)
1964 | Barry Goldwater ---- None (Nixon, essentially runner-up, sat out for '68)
1968 | Richard Nixon -------- Ronald Reagan
1976 | Gerald Ford ----------- Ronald Reagan
1980 | Ronald Reagan ------ George H.W. Bush
1988 | George H.W. Bush -- Bob Dole
1996 | Bob Dole -------------- None (W. Bush was the frontrunner next because of H.W.)
2000 | George W. Bush ---- John McCain
2008 | John McCain -------- Mitt Romney
2012 | Mitt Romney --------- Rick Santorum
I started the list with Eisenhower because he represents a new beginning for the Republican Party after the FDR-Truman era. Eisenhower of course, was a war hero from World War Two who was courted by both parties before sweeping the nomination in 1960. His Vice President, Richard Nixon, would become the very first "heir-apparent" and would also define Republican Presidential politics for a decade and a half. As you can see on the list, there are three years after Eisenhower which do not follow the heir-apparent pattern and Richard Nixon is in a way responsible for all three anomalies.
After losing the general election to John F. Kennedy by a whisker in 1960, Richard Nixon took a break from Presidential politics. Because he was the heir apparent, the 1964 GOP presidential race was a messy affair, further complicated by the chilling effect the assassination of JFK had on the political sphere. Conservative heartthrob Barry Goldwater was eventually nominated, after fending off challenges from a number of candidates, including Nelson Rockefeller. Goldwater lost in a landslide to Lyndon B. Johnson. Nelson would appear one last time as Ford's Vice President after the Watergate scandal, though he declined to seek the nomination at the 1976 convention for either Vice President or President
1976 was another messy election for the Republican Party. Nixon had been forced to resign in 1974 due to the Watergate scandal, and Gerald Ford, who had been appointed Vice President a year earlier after the original Vice President, Spiro Agnew, was indicted for corruption, became President. In 1976 Ford ran for the nomination in hopes of being elected to his first full term. Ronald Reagan, the runner-up from 1976, who felt slighted by events as he normally would have been the heir apparent, launched a strong campaign against Ford, but at the convention Gerald Ford managed to clinch the nomination. Because Rockefeller refused to consider staying on as Ford's Vice President, Bob Dole was selected as Ford's running mate.
The next "open" election would not come for another 20 years. Reagan finally had his two terms, and then his Vice President George H.W. Bush clinched the nomination and presidency in 1988 after a brief scare from Bob Dole. When 1996 rolled around it was Bob Dole's turn. The man had waited twenty years and his seniority, combined with the popularity of Bill Clinton who was seeking a second term, prevented any Republicans of note from entering the fray. Pat Buchanan, a wingnut televangelist nobody took seriously, was technically the runner-up, but in 2000 the Republican Party had a clean slate of candidates to choose from. However, the heir-apparent cycle was never really broken as George W. Bush, son of a former president and establishment favorite, continued the line.
Now let us think about the last primary campaign. Romney, heir-apparent, lead the field consistently, challenged just about every month by a new "anti-Romney" who inevitably faded away. However, the last anti-Romney, Rick Santorum, had a little more staying power. After winning Iowa by a hair, he went on to carry ten more states, eleven in total, with a significant share of the popular vote. He meets all the criteria for being the heir-apparent laid out by Republican predecessors. Another oft-mention heir-apparent, Romney's running mate Paul Ryan, does not have the same credentials. No losing Vice Presidential nominee has ever gone on to win the Republican nomination, at least not without first being a runner-up in the traditional sense as did Bob Dole.
Does this mean Santorum's election is guaranteed? I hope not. The trend seems seems solid, but the sample size of ten meaningful elections (without an incumbent excluding the irregular 1976 primaries) seems a bit small. However, those ten elections are spread across sixty years of political history. To shake the heir-apparent system would require a major shift in the Republican Party. One could certainly argue that the Tea Party is just such a shift. 2012, the first primary season with the Tea Party, was uncharacteristically chaotic for a Republican coronation. Next cycle the "heir-apparent" will be a man who has been out of office for a decade, a particularly weak candidate. However, by now the Tea Party has essentially become the GOP establishment; I do not believe they will so critically assess a candidate which is essentially their own. So maybe 2016 will be the year the cycle ends, but I am not optimistic.
But that does not mean Santorum will be elected president, does it? Surely Hillary Clinton, or whoever the Democrats nominate, would give Santorum a sound thumping. Ah, but this is where a second trend I have identified comes into play. Look below at the list of Democratic nominees from 1960 until 2012 and notice the pattern. Bold means the nominee served as president. Red means the nominee was vice president in the previous administration. Normal text means the nominee never served as president nor as vice president.
1960: John Kennedy
1964: Lyndon Johnson
1968: Hubert Humphrey
1972: George McGovern
1976: Jimmy Carter
1980: Jimmy Carter
1984: Walter Mondale
1988: Michael Dukakis
1992: Bill Clinton
1996: Bill Clinton
2000: Al Gore
2004: John Kerry
2008: Barack Obama
2012: Barack Obama
It is a strong pattern, which surprised me as Democratic primaries are always thought of as very chaotic. They certainly are more so than Republican coronations, but there is still a definite trend. A nominee is elected president, then followed by his vice president, who loses. Then another guys loses. Then the next guy is elected president and the cycle continues. Right now we are at the end of the current Democratic president, which means, if the pattern is followed, Joe Biden will be the next Democratic nominee.
But what about Hillary, you ask? I'm not going to try and read all the tea leaves in this post, but I will note that Hillary has not given any real indication that she wants to run for president. And even if she does, she has been upset once. Why not twice? Is it really such a stretch to believe that the she could be beaten by the sitting Vice President?
But he's Joe Biden, you say! That's right, and that's one more reason I think the trend will hold and Santorum will be able to beat him. Is this analysis airtight? Hell no. But you are reading an alternate history blog. I hope this post was speculative enough to not annoy those of you who are here for history. I promise, the next post will be solid alternate history. Oh and don't forget, there will be a new podcast episode coming out soon...ish. Stay tuned!
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